Primary political prognostications

Yes, it's that time again folks. Time for me to show my ignorance of the will of the people. Actually, my predictions aren't that bad. I'm right 95 percent of the time. It's just that when I miss, I miss big.

First let me start by saying that if you haven't voted, there are a couple of web sites you need to check. You need to check Scrutiny Hooligans for complete coverage of five Democratic debates that Buncombe County commissioner candidates attended in the run-up to Tuesday's primary. Gordon has excoriated the local media, including the Citizen-Times and the Mountain Xpress, for failing to cover said debates. Then Gordon and Co. went out and did it themselves.

This past week's Mountain Xpress cover story included extensive question-and-answer grids, which we felt offered voters good information to help them make informed decisions.

I expected the Citizen-Times to have something in Sunday's newspaper (today) - some questions and answers, a grid, profiles. Something. But there was little more than a listing of the candidates running and brief bio information. Nothing of substance. WLOS has done little of public service in this arena, as well. More than a month ago, Russ Bowen profiled the candidates running for governor, but I haven't seen anything else.

Kudos to Gordon and the hooligans. Here are the links:

Black Mountain

Ox Creek

Woodfin

Kenilworth

Fairview (video)

As Gordon also notes, the Republican candidates held zero debates in the run-up. So there's your background information.

Now, to my picks. These are not endorsements. These are my best guesses as to who will come away winners on Tuesday:

President
Democratic
Barack Obama wins North Carolina, though not by much - five or six percentage points

U.S. Senate
Democratic
Kay Hagan wins, even though I don't know the first thing about her.

Republican
Incumbent Elizabeth Dole wins, even though she's been in office six years and I don't know the first thing about her.

U.S. House, 11th District GOP
Spence Campbell beats out spotlight-hog Carl Mumpower for the right to face U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler in November.

Gov.
Democratic
Beverly Perdue beats out Richard Moore in an expensive, tough fight that nobody's paid much attention to because they're focused on the presidential race.

Republican
I'm guessing here - Pat McCrory?

Lt. Gov.
Democratic
Walter Dalton gets the nod as the establishment pick in a race that's been hotly contested. Pat Smathers might sneak in here.

Republican
Robert Pittenger? I have no idea.

State Treasurerer
Democratic
David Young, the Buncombe County commissioner with connections, gets it.

Buncombe County commissioner
Democratic
Holly Jones, K. Ray Bailey, Carol Peterson and Bill Stanley make it through. Cecil Bothwell has some juice, but will it be enough to break through? That fourth spot - which is where I think Stanley will finish - will be the spot to watch. Bothwell and Keith Thomson will be the two candidates who could break through.

Republican
Ron McKee, John Carroll, Joe Dunn and Don Yelton make the cut here.

Comments

[Jeff]

I hate to say this, but WLOS has done more public service than anyone. Streaming debates and speeches on their website for the public to see. Jason, I think you need to give them some kudos.

[Ash]

Jeff, i see a lot of AP video and stories on the WLOS web site - almost nothing local. no local reporting. nothing putting the state and national elections into context locally.

if the content's not generated by WLOSers, then it doesn't count.

no kudos for them.

[Jeff]

You're right, the problem is WLOS has this campaign plus section, the local ceverage is not in this section. It should be. If you click on PAST LIVE EVENTS, you can see what they have done. LATER DUDE.

[Ash]

Jeff, thanks for that - i'll look. i only looked at the "campaign plus."

[Gordon Smith]

Thanks for the shoutout, Ash. It was disappointing to see the paucity of coverage in the print media, and I hope they'll do better next time. The wide variety of issues covered at the forums was hardly reflected in the voter guide. That being said, I always like what Mtn. X does with their grid. It's probably the most influential guide in town.

Here's my out-on-a-limb prediction - Stanley doesn't make the cut.

[Gordon Smith]

Also, Ash et al.,

I've put together a voting advice thingy for folks who don't diddly about Commissioner of Labor, Commissioner of Insurance, Auditor and the like. It's here:

http://www.scrutinyhooligans.us/?p=5271

[A to the P]

News 13 has been doing everything from the race for governor to the state senator races in the last few weeks.

If your going to hate on somebody, you should probably check the facts first next time.

[Ricky]

Matt Mittan's show on 570 WWNC has done a fine job covering the elections in my opinion.

[Keith Thomson]

I predict I will be in the top four slots for County Commissioner. Check out my website and my two video spots:

http://www.keithforbuncombe.org/press.html

Keith Thomson

[James]

we will see how close you come, I early voted so I am done until the general election.....I do think there is a remote chance that Hillary could actually win NC.....very remote though.