Over and over again, I've pointed out the horribly inaccurate weather forecasts that we receive through our WLOSers. The weather-guessers rarely get it right, and this week was no exception. Lots of people come to the defense of the weather-guessers, noting "micro-climates" and other bullshit Mother Nature excuses.

Now I've found some information that makes it blatantly clear that local television weather forecasters don't get it right most of the time and don't care that they don't get it right.

Here's the most excellent post, and here are some relevant bits:

In a study of the accuracy of local TV weather forecasts, here's what station personnel said about their forecasting:

“We have no idea what’s going to happen [in the weather] beyond three days out.”

“There’s not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring meteorologists. Presentation takes precedence over accuracy.”

“All that viewers care about is the next day. Accuracy is not a big deal to viewers.”

The weather-guessers regularly miss when it comes to temperature:

Even more conclusively than the temperature accuracy graph, this prediction variance graph shows that 21st century meteorology is not developed enough to provide a week of accurate temperature forecasting. Meteorologists take a blind stab at what the high temperature and rain possibilities might be seven days out, and then adjust their predictions on the fly as the week goes on. As mentioned earlier, one meteorologist told us: “We have no idea what’s going to happen beyond three days out.”

And they're pretty bad when it comes to predicting precipitation, too:

For all days beyond the next day out, viewers would be better off flipping a coin to predict rainfall than trusting the stations on days where rain was possible. Oddly, N.O.A.A. — which had been one of the better forecasters in our other evaluations — was the worst in this one, especially when predicting three days out and beyond. When N.O.A.A. meteorologist Noelle Runyan was questioned about this, she stated, “Our forecasts are more conservative than the television stations. We raise our P.O.P. predictions to over 50 percent only when we are sure of rain.” This statement and the data above are another illustration of how — with the data and tools given to them — today’s meteorologists cannot confidently predict the weather beyond three days out.

And here are the big weaknesses, spelled out for you:

One of the two major weaknesses in television meteorology today is the “non-event” days — the boring, run-of-the-mill days when no significant weather events are upcoming. It is unfortunate that 13 percent of each news telecast (actually about 20 percent if you discount the commercials) is dedicated to a weather forecast that is mostly time-consuming fluff.

The meat of such forecasts could easily be condensed to one minute or less, or maybe even a crawl at the bottom of the screen that runs for the full telecast. Reduction of the weather segment on days when there is no weather news would allow for more thorough reporting of world, national, and local news.

The other major weakness is that ratings drive television. Sadly, the data show that stations are so consumed with ratings that accuracy in weather predictions takes an irrelevant back seat to snappy patter and charm. When directly asked if accuracy mattered in forecasting, every station manager and meteorologist said it did. But when asked what steps they had taken to measure and ensure accuracy, they were without answers.

No meteorologist or television station kept records of what they predicted, nor compared their predictions to actual results over a long term. No meteorologist posts their accuracy statistics on their résumé. No station managers use accuracy statistics in the hiring or evaluation of their meteorologists.

Instead, the focus is on charm, charisma, and presentation. Their words say they care about accuracy, but their actions say they do not. Yet, they wish to continue providing inaccurate seven-day forecasts that are no more than a semi-educated shot in the dark because a) their competitors do and b) they can get away with it since they think the public does not know how inaccurate they are.

Until the public demands change in the form of lost ratings from this hollow practice of “placebo forecasting,” T.V. weather forecasts will continue to blow smoke up our … upper-level-lows.

WLOSer Heather Graf was at the helm of the 6 o'clock on Sunday. We're in mid-sweeps, and the best they had was story about the story they'll have at 11 about the five-year anniversary of the arrest of Olympic Park and abortion clinic bomber Eric Robert Rudolph.

What is it about WLOSers giving us no news at 6, and telling us they'll have the full story at 11? I want the news now, not at 11. Very frustrating.

Anyway - five years since the arrest of Rudolph. Wow. Seems like such a long time ago. Sounds like the story by Russ will touch on the long-rumored assistance Rudolph received from locals. Should be interesting.

The only other interesting story WLOSers had was Kassandra Pride's tidbit that there are temporary layoffs coming at Haywood Regional Medical Center. There were no details, but it's nice to see that not everyone has forgotten about that big story.

In terms of the weather, WLOSers have completely blown every forecast this week, so I just can't take them seriously. Period.

The spring 2008 edition of the Lake Eden Arts Festival was a stormy one. First off, there were stormy relations with the public, as this was the first year that LEAF sold out a week in advance, upsetting a lot of people who waited too long to purchase tix. And stormy in the literal sense, with deluges and tornado watches and such.

Still, it's a beautiful setting. And the music is awesome.

Here's the press release:

Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy will be joined by community and business leaders in a bicycle ride May 12 to kick off this year’s “Strive Not to Drive” week. The event kicks off with a 10 a.m. press conference at the Asheville Area Chamber of Commerce. Following the press conference, representatives of 25 organizations will bicycle with the Mayor to City Hall, where they will sign the Strive Not to Drive Pledge, demonstrating a commitment to provide leadership in promoting alternative transportation in their organizations.

Promoting bicycling, walking, carpools, and public transit are important goals for Asheville’s leadership--but it was not always so. Since the first Bike to Work Day was organized in 1990, air quality has become an important issue. Over the past decade Western North Carolina has experienced among the state’s highest mortality rates for pneumonia, flu, emphysema and asthma. Air pollution is especially harmful to the health of children, the elderly, and those who have breathing problems.

Since automobiles contribute to at least half of WNC’s air pollution problem, community leaders will take a variety of steps to make it easier for employees or co-workers to take fewer trips in their car, such as rewarding employees for carpooling, providing showers for bike riders, or working with the Asheville Transit System through the PASSport Program. Beyond influencing practices in their own organizations, many community leaders will advocate for policies and practices to make Asheville a leader in multi-modal transportation.

Strive Not to Drive is an opportunity to consider how the transportation choices impact health and mountain lifestyle. Event organizers encourage citizens to get to work or school on May 16 using a form of transportation other than driving in alone in a car. Those who commit to trying other forms of transportation can sign a pledge, which will make them eligible for discounts from local businesses. Organizers hope those who use alternative forms of transportation during this week will be encouraged to incorporate them more into their daily routines throughout the year.

For a complete list of activities, the Strive Not to Drive pledge form and more information about the event visit: www.blueridgecommute.org and click on Strive Not to Drive in the upper right-hand corner of the page.

An Asheville performance is long overdue for native Roberta Flack. Now seems like the perfect time for a return visit. This Cleveland Plain Dealer story has the scoop:

Roberta Flack hasn't put out a proper studio album in more than a decade. Her next one should be a doozy, however. "I've been trying to finish an album of Beatles songs," the R&B chanteuse says, reached at home in New York City.

Then she asks: "You want to hear one?"

Before your reporter can pinch himself, Flack cues up a recording. Even over the phone, the effect is magical. Accompanying herself delicately on piano, she sings in a crystalline voice:

Here, making each day of the year

Changing my life with a wave of his hand

Nobody can deny there's something there. . .

Clearly, at 69, Flack remains perfectly capable of killing you softly. (Assault with a deadly ballad, anyone?) She'll headline a benefit concert Saturday night at John Hay High School, to raise money for the Cleveland School of the Arts.

Besides her jazz-tinged rendition of "Here, There and Everywhere," Flack has versions of "In My Life," "Here Comes the Sun" and "Come Together" in the can for her Beatles project, still a work-in-progress. No word yet on a release date.

"I did a serious reading of 'Come Together,' where I wrote a little thing at the end for kids to sing," she says. "That music was very, very, very much in my head, in everybody's life when I started singing. . . . I love the [Beatles'] music, all of it."

For years, Flack has lived across the hall from Yoko Ono in Manhattan's Dakota building, where John Lennon was murdered in 1980.

"Yoko and I have a very strong friendship," Flack says. "We're both Aquarians. I shared a lot of intimate moments with her and John, at their dinner table."

All the same, Flack hasn't played any of her Beatles songs for Ono just yet.

"She knows I'm doing this, but I'm not pushing anything," Flack says.

The Asheville, N.C., native had a string of chart-topping singles in the 1970s, including the Grammy winners "The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face" and "Killing Me Softly with His Song." (The latter tune later got a hip-hop makeover courtesy of the Fugees.) Flack also scored hits with duet partner Donny Hathaway (who died in 1979), including "Where Is the Love" and "The Closer I Get to You."

The Raleigh paper has the story:

What would you get if you crossed "The Golden Girls" with "Fried Green Tomatoes" and put it on stage? For an Asheville-based trio of playwrights, the answer is simple: applause.

In three years, Los Angeles refugees Jessie Jones, Nicholas Hope and Jamie Wooten have written four plays that have been staged more than 200 times across the United States and Canada. Their brand of Southern-fried comedy will be presented this year in at least nine North Carolina communities, including Raleigh, Garner and Wilson, where "The Dixie Swim Club" is part of this month's Theater of the American South.

All three writers are Southerners -- Wooten grew up in Wayne County; Jones and Hope are from Texas. Wooten was a writer and producer on "The Golden Girls" and other TV shows. Jones acted and co-wrote the 1992 play "Dearly Departed," which was adapted into the Whoopi Goldberg movie "Kingdom Come." Hope has been a playwright, television writer and casting director.

They found one another in that foreign land of Hollywood, bonded over their theater roots and Southern humor, and fell into a kind of tag-team repartee.

After working together as a comedy collective for about five years, they bumped up against the age barrier in television -- there's little interest in stories for adults older then 34, they said. The trio bailed out together and moved to Asheville.

"We were sick and tired of laughing at ourselves and not getting paid for it," Hope said in a recent speakerphone call from their office. All three of them cracked up like a sitcom laugh track.

"L.A. was very good to us," Wooten said "We had a wonderful run. There was more we wanted to do."

After moving to North Carolina, they came up with "Dearly Beloved," set in fictional Fayro, Texas, and featuring the Futrelle sisters, Frankie, Honey Raye and Twink. The show was so successful that the writers turned it into a trilogy with "Christmas Belles" and "Southern Hospitality."

You get the picture. Be on the lookout for "The Hallelujah Girls" and "'Til Beth Do Us Part" coming to a community theater near you.

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory got in the race for governor late - just 16 weeks before the primary. So how did he win?
The Charlotte paper has it:

Analysts and others who followed the race say the seven-term mayor benefited from a number of factors.

• McCrory caught the attention of some national party leaders. They helped persuade him to get in, though they appear to have remained neutral once he did.

"Folks in D.C. saw that he would make a great governor, so there was a fair amount of interest in his candidacy," said Chris Shrimp, communications director for the Republican Governors Association.

North Carolina and Missouri now are this year's most competitive gubernatorial races for Republicans, Shrimp said.

McCrory has spent time in Washington as a member of the U.S. Homeland Security Advisory Council. He has also testified before Congress.

Richard Hudson, a senior aide to the U.S. House Republican leadership and former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes of Concord, said some GOP leaders saw none of the other candidates emerging as a front-runner.

• Most voters were not enthusiastic about McCrory's rivals.

Polls before he entered the race in January showed about half of Republicans were undecided. The other major candidates were not well known, and only one, former N.C. Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, had ever run for statewide office.

McCrory's two other major rivals were Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham and state Sen. Fred Smith of Johnston County.

The candidates agreed on most issues and initially spent little on television advertising, so voters had few reasons to pay close attention, Orr said.

"There was no issue where people were saying, `Did you hear what Fred Smith said?' " Orr said.

McCrory said the apathy came up when he was deciding whether to run.

"People were calling me up and telling me, `Look, the way people are talking about this is, the winner of the Moore-Perdue race is going to be governor,' " McCrory said, referring to the Democratic candidates Richard Moore and Beverly Perdue.

• McCrory was well known at home, and local supporters showed up on election day.

Voters in the Charlotte media market, home to a third of the state's Republican electorate, already knew of McCrory. A candidate from another part of the state would have needed to spend hundreds of thousands to be on equal footing.

McCrory took 80 percent of the Mecklenburg vote Tuesday. That's a bigger share than he got in the three most recent Republican primaries for mayor, where he received between 64 and 74 percent. He also won in every county around Mecklenburg, some by more than four to one.

Hawke said the campaign tried to maximize that advantage when deciding where to buy television time. They solidified support near Charlotte, then moved into Greensboro and Raleigh -- elevating regional loyalties over ideological ones.

"In many campaigns you either have a philosophical strategy or a geographic strategy," Hawke said, "and we had a geographic strategy."

Republican consultant Carter Wrenn said the strategy is familiar. He used it with Richard Vinroot in the 2000 primary for governor.

"They realized it would work, they adopted it and they executed it," Wrenn said.

• McCrory raised money quickly.

He had more than $400,000 left over from his mayoral campaign -- which he transferred to his gubernatorial campaign -- but McCrory needed an aggressive fundraising push. He held fundraisers in Asheville, Wilmington and other cities and raised an additional $1.2 million in three months.

Much of the money came from familiar sources -- including prominent Charlotte bankers, executives and sports-team owners -- but not all of it. "People would refer me to total strangers," McCrory said, "and then I would call and go meet them."

This wedding announcement didn't run in the Citizen-Times. It ran in the New York Times:

Katherine Wright Barge and Jeremy Austin Paris were married on Saturday evening at the Grove Park Inn in Asheville, N.C. Rabbi Harvey J. Winokur officiated, with the Rev. Timothy C. Ahrens, a United Church of Christ minister, taking part.

Mrs. Paris, 28, is the director of communications strategy for Faith in Public Life, a nonprofit organization in Washington that seeks to help a diverse range of religious groups organize around issues like climate change and poverty. Through that organization, the bride was the lead organizer in putting together the Compassion Forum last month, a question and answer session attended by Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton at Messiah College in Grantham, Pa., that was shown on CNN. She graduated from Wesleyan University.

She is the daughter of Stephanie Citron of Asheville, N.C., and the Rev. Kelly Barge of Atlanta. Her father is the senior minister at Sandy Springs United Methodist Church in Sandy Springs, Ga. Her mother, a clinical psychologist in Asheville, is the founder of All Souls Counseling Center, which offers counseling to uninsured and underinsured people in Asheville. She is the stepdaughter of Anne Barge and of Dan Mermin.

Mr. Paris, 33, works in Washington as the senior counsel for oversight and investigations for Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. The bridegroom graduated from Yale and received a law degree from Harvard.

He is a son of Deborah Paris and Zachary Paris of Shaker Heights, Ohio. His mother is a psychotherapist there. His father is a partner in the Cleveland law firm Jones Day.

Major construction work happening at Appalachian State University's football stadium.

Seen at the rockin' www.BooneWeb.com.

Here's the story. But I saw it first at the all-knowing www.BooneWeb.com.

The Tweetise Railroad is more than a railroad - it's an economic engine for Watauga County. This well-written story covers all the bases, and the last paragraph sums it all up:

The Watauga County Board of Commissioners and the county’s Tourism Development Authority have proposed an economic development incentives partnership with Tweetsie Railroad to keep the theme park in the county. The proposal includes purchasing an interest in Tweetsie land and providing an annual marketing subsidy.

Tweetsie’s Recent History
A potential threat to Tweetsie’s remaining in the county surfaced two years ago when land leases critical to the park’s operation came up for renewal, and the park’s principals faced difficult negotiations to extend those leases.

Tweetsie Railroad, Inc. owns 87 acres of the park, but leases three additional tracts totaling approximately 188 acres. Ownership of those three tracts is split among multiple owners.

At the time of the lease negotiations, Tweetsie principals began exploring alternative sites for the theme park. According to information in the county’s report, Tweetsie has optioned a tract of more than 300 acres in Wilkes County as a contingency if the Watauga County leases cannot be successfully renegotiated.
Complicating the situation is a mandate to sell the theme park’s controlling stock. Before Tweetsie’s found Harry Robbins died, he and his ex-wife Revalle entered an agreement to pursue the joint sale of the controlling stock. Robbins’ widow Barbara and Revalle own 100 percent of the Class A controlling stock, and trust instruments require that the stock be sold.

Potential third-party buyers of the stock were interested in the land for commercial development purposes—not for continuing the theme park operations.

As a result, Harry Robbins’ son Chris, the current president of Tweetsie, has negotiated terms with the two trustees that would allow him to purchase a significant block of stock and become the controlling shareholder. Robbins has arranged financing with BB&T to enable the company to reorganize its stock, make improvements to the park and develop adjacent property to create another income stream for the park.

With regard to the leases, in 2006, Tweetsie successfully negotiated a lease agreement on one tract through 2065. In 2007, Tweetsie successfully negotiated with the majority owners of the two additional tracts to extend their leases through 2065. However, the minority owners of the two tracts want to sell their interests.

The County’s Proposal
Under the terms of the proposal, Watauga County will purchase the minority owners’ interests in the two tracts for $3.15 million and then lease the land to Tweetsie for $1 per year for six years. The county would own 46.34 percent interest in a 46-acre tract and 34.75 percent interest in a 96-acre tract.

The money for the property purchase will come from the county’s general fund, and the county may borrow funds as well. The county’s Tourism Development Authority will provide $200,000 of the purchase price, and will also pay Tweetsie $150,000 annually for six years to market the theme park. Tourism Development Authority funds come from the occupancy tax visitors pay to stay in rental properties in unincorporated areas of the county.

Tweetsie’s Proposal
In return, Tweetsie has agreed to the following terms:
• Lease the county-owned land at full market rate after the initial six years
• Purchase the land from the county at a future date to be determined at $3.15 million plus interest
• Build a greenway on Tweetsie land along the Middle Fork of the New River and convey the land to the county or other public entity
• Invest at least $13 million in improvements to the park over the next 19 years
•Stay in the county as least as long as the county assistance package is in effect
Economic Drivers and Rationale

In the proposal report, the county provides a number of economic reasons for stepping in to assist Tweetsie. Among them is Tweetsie’s impact on the local economy.

In 2007, Tweetsie attracted more than 235,000 visitors, and a 2005 study showed direct and indirect impact of $27 million to the county economy. In 2007, Tweetsie paid $691,000 in state, federal and local taxes, with sales and property taxes accounting for $226,000 of that figure. In addition, Tweetsie employs 26 full-time staff members and more than 300 seasonal employees. The park’s 2007 payroll was more than $2.7 million.

The report also notes that Tweetsie has spent a great deal of money to resolve its lease issues and is now paying “much higher lease rates.” To resolve the remaining land issues and maintain a quality attraction, the report continues, “it was necessary to turn to the County for assistance.”

If the county does not approve the proposed transaction, the report states, “The BB&T financing [for Robbins’ stock purchase and park improvements] will not happen, nor will Tweetsie Railroad’s stock reorganization. The current stockholders will sell their stock on the open market, which will most likely result in the demise of the Tweetsie Railroad them park in Watauga County.”

This sounds big:

The four largest realtors networks in the state are joining forces to share their public data across the state, they said in a statement Friday.

The listing services for the Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh areas are part of the program, called the North Carolina Data Share.

NCDS, as the program is known, expands the Internet Data Exchange programs of the four listing services.

The Internet Data Exchange is essentially the public version of a listing service, which is typically restricted to real estate brokers. Using the data exchange, a potential home buyer can log on to a broker's Web site and see all of the publicly available information about real estate listings in an area.

Now, those Web sites will contain information about homes in all four of the regions that are part of NCDS.

"Our four MLSs have taken steps to improve access to real estate information in North Carolina for brokers and consumers," said Richard Renton, executive vice president of Triad MLS. "Broker Web sites in North Carolina can now compete with Web sites of national aggregators as comprehensive sources of listing information."

The Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors is still deciding whether to join the program.

This NY Times feature shows what real estate you can get for $3 million in Weaverville. I blogged about the NY Times also featuring a $4 million piece of property in Tuckaseegee.

So much for a downturn in the local real estate market, eh?

Weaverville, N.C.

WHAT: A three-bedroom six-and-a-half-bath house with 6,796 square feet on 30 acres

HOW MUCH: $2,999,999

PER SQUARE FOOT: $441

SETTING: Surrounded by woods and hills, the property has 1,600 feet of frontage on the Ivy River. Asheville, N.C., is 15 minutes south; Great Smoky Mountains National Park is an hour away.

COMMON SPACES: The living room and kitchen share an open space with double-height ceilings. A sun room with a stone fireplace has wall-to-wall windows. Hardwood floors and custom-made wrought-iron light fixtures can be found throughout.

PERSONAL SPACES: The master bedroom is on the main floor.

OUTDOOR SPACE: The riverfront area has a rope swing and covered picnic area.

AMENITIES: These include three fireplaces, wraparound porch, a two-stall horse barn, a four-bay garage and a workshop. There is a game and media room on the lower level with access to a patio.

TAXES: $2,556 a year

CONTACT: David Welsh or Shelley Terry, Beverly-Hanks and Associates, (877) 313-9500; www.beverly-hanks.com

Photo taken on flight provided by South Wings.

Carl Mumpower on election night.

One-click Photoshop.

www.roanoke.com has the story:

PEARISBURG -- The Appalachian Trail reopened in Giles County on Thursday, two days after a pair of fishermen were shot and wounded in a crime that hauntingly resembled two gruesome killings committed near the same spot in 1981.

Officials removed the yellow crime scene tape that had cordoned off a 28-mile stretch of the trail while investigators searched for clues and other potential victims Wednesday, and hikers again began trekking through.

Perhaps, though, they had more to talk about than in any year since 1981, when Giles County native Randall Lee Smith Jr. killed two trail hikers at Wapiti Shelter, just a few miles up the road from where two fishermen had set up camp when police say Smith shot them Tuesday night.

"Man, I'm out here having the time of my life," said Nathan Adcock, a 31-year-old nurse from Asheville, N.C. "And then somebody's out there shooting."

Adcock -- trail name "Superchunk" -- and other friends he met along the trail spent the night Tuesday at Jenny's Knob shelter not far from the campsite where Smith is suspected of shooting Sean Farmer, 33, of Tazewell and Scott Johnston, 37, of Bluefield.

The pair were at their camp on Lions Den Road when a man Giles County investigators believe was Smith walked up and struck up a conversation. He hung around for about three hours, staying to have a dinner of fresh trout and baked beans with the men.

After they ate, the man reportedly jumped up and pulled out a gun. Farmer was shot in the face and chest. Johnston was shot in the neck and back.

The men fled out of the forest in Farmer's Jeep Cherokee and sought help a couple of miles away at the home of Sheila and Melissa Miller, two sisters who live on Dismal Creek Road.

Farmer has been released from the hospital, friends said. A spokesman for Carilion Roanoke Memorial Hospital said Johnston was still in serious condition Thursday.

Biltmore Estate from the air, courtesy of South Wings.

I love it when WLOSers try to explain a "trend" to me. Why? Because they make the everyday out to be a "frightening trend." They take something not new at all and make that the lead story on their news.

Tonight, for sweeps, it was about the Erwin Middle School "trend" of kids going "emo." Carolyn Ryan said the emo kids wear hair over their face, black T-shirts and they cut themselves. And she had an anonymous 11-year-old who had been wooed to that dark side tell us all about it. Emo is like being goth, only worse, according to Carolyn Ryan. Not sure why, but that's the way she made it sound.

The Erwin Middle School principal wouldn't give WLOSers an on-camera interview and told Carolyn the school's got everything under control.

WLOSers, here's a question to ponder: couldn't this all just be kids going through pre-adolescence? Couldn't it just be kids learning how to deal with peer pressure, learning how to deal with being themselves? Why does it this have to be a bloody story with a graphic over Carolyn of razor blades showering an old-fashioned school desk? Show some restraint. Please.

There was some other news about a murder investigation and downtown business owners complaining about the slow-moving construction of the new Pack Square Park, but I didn't really pay attention to it.